Sasol Limited — Cyborg Score 4/10

Mixed
Oil, Gas, and Chemicals

Strategic Profile

FY26 fuel sales guidance rises to 5–10% above FY25, while gas output is now seen up to 5% below FY25 amid PSA and CTT delays and softer demand. Sasol has signed a Letter of Intent with German startup INERATEC to supply next-generation catalysts for e-SAF (sustainable aviation fuel) production, set for completion in 2026, which will enhance INERATEC's ERA ONE facility's e-kerosene yield by 15%. The company is also pursuing renewable energy integration and emissions reduction targets.

Cyborg Score Rationale

EPS is expected to increase by over 100% to R7.00-R12.00 from prior year's loss, with HEPS projected to rise 85-100% to R33.60-R36.30. However, the company has been given a consensus recommendation of 'Reduce' by five ratings firms, with two analysts rating it 'sell' and three issuing 'hold' ratings.

Top Insights

  • Signed 15-year virtual power purchase agreement for 91 MW of renewable energy from Akuo's Tennyson solar farm in Texas, reducing CO2 emissions by 90,000 tons annually and supporting 30% emissions reduction goal by 2030.
  • Key operational achievements include fatality-free Q2 FY26, destoning plant progress, and stronger Natref operations supporting higher fuels sales.
  • Chemicals market conditions remain soft across all regions, resulting in lower revenue during the period.
  • Appointed Rhidwaan Gasant, ex-Engen finance chief and Energy Africa CEO with three decades of governance and energy sector experience, as independent director effective February 1, 2026.

Named Competitors

  • Shell Energy & Chemicals — Integrated global energy and chemicals producer with GTL operations
  • ExxonMobil Fuels & Chemicals — Major global petroleum and chemical products manufacturer
  • Chevron Energy & Chemicals — International oil and natural gas company with chemical operations
  • BASF Chemicals — Leading global chemical manufacturer with diverse product portfolio

Recent Developments

  • (February 2026) New board appointment: Rhidwaan Gasant joins as independent non-executive director
  • (January 2026) Business performance metrics published showing revised FY26 guidance with fuel sales upside offset by gas output weakness
  • (October 2025) Strategic capital markets update and 17.57% stock price appreciation; signed e-SAF catalyst supply agreement with INERATEC
  • (2025) Signed virtual power purchase agreement with Akuo for 250,000 MWh annual renewable energy supply

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