Managed Care / Health Insurance (Government Programs Focus)
Strategic Profile
The company anticipates over 40% adjusted EPS growth for 2026, driven by improvements in Medicaid, Marketplace, and Medicare Advantage segments, supported by stable Medicaid margins, recovering Marketplace margins, and progress in Medicare Advantage. Centene's improved profit outlook suggests the government programs giant will manage to stabilize elevated medical costs in 2026.
Cyborg Score Rationale
The company's revenue growth over the past three years has been robust at 13.4%, but profitability metrics reveal challenges with negative EPS of -10.82 and a net margin of -2.85%, with gross margin at 8.14%. While 2026 EPS guidance exceeds analyst expectations at $3.00+, revenue projections of $186.5B-$190.5B fall short of market expectations.
Top Insights
The profitability of Centene's Medicaid business improved, with higher medical spending on behavioral health, home health and high-cost drugs offset by stronger rate and revenue increases.
Centene closed 2025 with Medicaid rates 5.5% above 2024's levels, expects composite rate increase of 4.5% this year, and has taken actions like removing overbilling providers from its network to manage spending.
Centene expects to end Q1 2026 with 3.5M ACA enrollees, down from 5.5M at end of 2025, once members not paying any premiums are filtered out.
Full-year 2025 GAAP diluted loss per share was $(13.53), driven by a $6.7B goodwill impairment, though adjusted diluted EPS was $2.08.
Named Competitors
Molina Healthcare — Medicaid and ACA managed care provider
Elevance Health — Medicaid and marketplace health plans
UnitedHealth Group — Diversified health and wellness company with government programs exposure
Recent Developments
(February 2026) Centene reported 2025 GAAP loss of $13.53/share driven by $6.7B goodwill impairment; announced 2026 EPS guidance exceeding $3.00, up 44% YoY
(February 2026) Q4 2025 revenue reached $49.73B with 21.9% YoY growth; company ended year with 27.63M members
(February 2026) Announced 2026 revenue guidance of $170-174B (lower than consensus); expects margin improvement and stabilization in Medicaid business
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