Ampol is well-placed with a leading market share in transport fuels, backed by an extensive distribution network. The company is guiding for around AUD 945 million in 2025 EBIT, up 32%, supported by strong turnaround in refining and high-single-digit growth in fuels and infrastructure.
Cyborg Score Rationale
Ampol demonstrates stable market leadership with improving refinery margins and mid-to-high single-digit growth across segments. However, the company faces headwinds from volume declines in convenience retail and exposure to commodity price volatility, which limits upside potential.
Top Insights
FY25 EBIT guidance of AUD 945M (+32% YoY) driven by strong Lytton Refinery Margin recovery (US$15.14/bbl vs US$4.60/bbl prior year)
Convenience retail achieved mid-single-digit EBIT growth despite 4.4% volume decline, demonstrating pricing power and operational leverage
Refinery production increased 4.9% YoY to 5,519ML; elevated refining margins supported profitability turnaround across segments
Extensive 1,800+ service station network provides competitive moat but faces long-term headwinds from EV adoption and energy transition
Named Competitors
Shell Australia — Global oil and gas company with fuel retail network
BP Australia — International energy company with Australian fuel operations
Z Energy — New Zealand fuel distributor and retailer
Recent Developments
(January 2026) FY25 preliminary results released with AUD 945M EBIT guidance, up 32% on strong refining margins