Aemetis, Inc. — Cyborg Score 5/10

Mixed
Renewable Fuels, Biofuels & Biochemicals Manufacturing

Strategic Profile

Aemetis operates through three segments: California Ethanol, California Dairy Renewable Natural Gas, and India Biodiesel. The company is expanding its Keyes California ethanol plant with a mechanical vapor recompression project scheduled for Q2 2026 completion, projected to increase annual cash flow by $32 million through energy cost reductions, higher LCFS credit income, and increased Section 45Z tax credits, while reducing natural gas use by ~80% and carbon intensity.

Cyborg Score Rationale

Aemetis reported TTM revenue of $267.6M but TTM net income of -$87.5M. The company is operationally active with growth initiatives and significant tax credit monetization, but faces profitability challenges and works in volatile commodity markets dependent on policy support.

Top Insights

  • Aemetis Biogas sold $17M of federal clean energy tax credits in Q4 2025, netting ~$15M in cash proceeds.
  • India subsidiary Universal Biofuels secured $24M in biodiesel allocations for March 2026 with an 80M gallon/year expanded Kakinada plant and is preparing an IPO for a minority stake.
  • Q3 2025 revenue reached $59.2M, up $7.0M sequentially, driven by stronger California ethanol pricing and $14.5M of India biodiesel orders.
  • Twelve dairy digesters produced 114,000 MMBtu in Q3 2025 and generated ~$4.0M of revenue with seven new CARB LCFS pathway approvals enabling full monetization.

Named Competitors

  • Ethanol and Advanced Biofuels — Ethanol and specialty chemicals production
  • Sustainable Aviation Fuel — Sustainable aviation fuel and renewable hydrocarbons
  • Renewable Natural Gas — Landfill gas and dairy biogas RNG conversion

Recent Developments

  • (February 2026) Aemetis India subsidiary secured $24M biodiesel allocation from India government OMCs through March 2026
  • (December 2025) Sold $17M in federal clean energy tax credits for $15M net cash proceeds
  • (December 2025) Received air permits for mechanical vapor recompression project at California ethanol plant
  • (November 2025) Reported Q3 2025 revenue of $59.2M, up $7.0M sequentially from India biodiesel and ethanol sales

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