Ryman Healthcare Limited — Cyborg Score 3/10

Strategic Profile

The company owns and operates approximately 40 villages across New Zealand and eight in Australia. However, revenue growth is expected to slow to 1.2% annualized growth through end of 2026, well below historical 13% per annum growth, with the wider industry forecast to grow faster. The company faces headwinds in profitability and competitive positioning within the aged-care sector.

Cyborg Score Rationale

Analysts have downgraded earnings per share and revenue estimates, with forecasts implying worse performance than the wider industry, and price targets have been cut significantly. Current ROE of -13.73% has declined 212.87% from the historical average. The company faces structural operational challenges.

Top Insights

• Recent earnings downgrades triggered 22% consensus price target cut to NZ$2.85, signaling significant investor sentiment deterioration
• Negative ROE and EBITDA margins indicate operational stress despite substantial asset base of NZ$12.1B
• Revenue growth forecast of 1.2% for 2026 trails historical 13% CAGR and industry average of 7.1%
• Stock trading near 13% discount to intrinsic value per DCF analysis, suggesting potential value opportunity if operational trends stabilize

Named Competitors

• Summerset Group Holdings — Integrated retirement communities and aged-care operator in ANZ region

Recent Developments

• (May 2025) Analyst earnings downgrades following weak H1 2025 results, triggering 22% price target reduction
• (Nov 2025) H1 2026 earnings call held; company reported negative net income of NZ$45.19M for half-year
• (Mar 2026) Stock trading at NZ$2.48-2.90, down 16.78% over past year despite near-term 5% rally

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