The company is transitioning from federal government dependence (which declined 25% in 2025) toward commercial revenue diversification. Management expects more than 60% of 2026 revenue from non-federal sources, signaling stabilization and recovery. The firm maintains strong operational fundamentals with a $3.4 billion backlog and 1.19 trailing twelve-month book-to-bill ratio.
Cyborg Score Rationale
While 2025 revenue fell 7.3% to $1.87 billion due to federal headwinds and government shutdown impact, the firm demonstrated commercial resilience with energy services up 24%. The company maintained 11.1% adjusted EBITDA margin and generated $142 million in operating cash flow with a healthy $3.4 billion backlog. However, federal revenue remains a near-term headwind with expected high-single-digit declines in 2026 before sequential recovery.
Top Insights
Commercial, state & local and international government client revenues increased 16% in Q4 and 14% for full year, reaching 57% of annual revenues.
The $3.4 billion backlog with sequential improvement expected through Q4 2026 provides revenue visibility despite current federal headwinds.
Management expects 10-20 basis points of margin upside from AI efficiencies while repurchasing shares and maintaining dividends.
The stock trades at a reasonable 15.04 P/E ratio with modest beta of 0.43, indicating relatively defensive positioning.
Named Competitors
Government and Commercial Consulting — Federal government technology and defense consulting
Management Consulting — Global technology and strategy consulting services
Professional Services — Integrated consulting and technology services
Federal Consulting — IT consulting and systems integration for government
Recent Developments
(February 2026) Q4 2025 earnings reported $1.47 EPS missing estimates by $0.06, but revenue of $443.67 million slightly beat expectations.
(February 2026) ICF raised FY 2026 guidance to $6.95-$7.25 non-GAAP EPS and $1.9-$2.0 billion revenue.
(February 2026) Quarterly dividend declared at $0.14 per share with 0.7% yield, reflecting management confidence in cash generation.
Open the full interactive ICF International, Inc. report
Strategic research, analyst-debate audio, full Cyborg Score breakdown across 11 dimensions, and saved-company audio playlists.