Coles Group Limited — Cyborg Score 7/10

Solid
Grocery Retail / Supermarket Retail

Strategic Profile

Coles' market-leading position and difficult-to-replicate store network are competitive advantages over smaller existing competitors and any new entrants. Coles Group's businesses are defensive in nature with cash flow largely from consumer staples; the company profits from negative working capital and possesses a strong balance sheet with investment-grade credit ratings.

Cyborg Score Rationale

Strong market position and defensive business model with consistent dividends, but valuation appears elevated and profit growth is modest at 3.1% annually. The company faces structural challenges in a competitive retail environment.

Top Insights

  • Defensive consumer staples business with high-quality, stable cash flows generating ~100% cash conversion and 80%+ dividend payout ratio
  • Negative working capital model creates capital release opportunities as the business scales, supporting strong return of capital to shareholders
  • Market-leading supermarket network with ~115,000 employees provides significant competitive moat against new entrants
  • Recent valuation appears stretched relative to earnings growth (~3% annually), trading at elevated multiples near 27x P/E

Named Competitors

  • Woolworths Group — Australia's largest supermarket chain with AUD 39.0B market cap
  • IGA/Metcash — Smaller independent supermarket network distributor
  • Walmart — Global grocery and retail competitor

Recent Developments

  • (Feb 2026) H1 2026 results scheduled for Feb 27, 2026 with analyst briefing
  • (Feb 2026) Trading at AUD 22.06 with market cap of AUD 29.6B as of mid-Feb 2026
  • (FY 2025) Reported underlying profit growth of 3.1% with dividend yield of 3.31% and 85.4% payout ratio

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